According to a preliminary estimate by Portugal’s National Statistics Institute (INE), consumer prices rose 3.6% year-on-year in September. In August, the increase was 3.3%. Portugal has not seen inflation this high since 2023.
The main culprit is energy. Fuel, electricity and gas prices jumped 15.4% over the past year, up from 12.2% in August. Economists at Nova SBE, the Lisbon School of Business and Economics, and banking group BFF link the increase to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global oil supplies. Fresh food prices also rose 3.6%. And between August and September alone, overall prices increased by 1.2%.
There is some good news, though. Excluding energy and fresh food, inflation stands at 2.7% and barely changed over the past month. In other words, for now, it is mainly things tied to fuel and electricity that are getting more expensive, while most other goods and services are holding relatively steady.
Winter is still ahead, and Brussels is already thinking about it. European Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen says Europe has enough gas, but warned that high prices could hurt households almost as much as an actual shortage. For some people, heating their homes could become unaffordable; for others, even getting to work could become more expensive. According to Jørgensen, almost 50 million Europeans cannot properly heat their homes even during a normal winter.
National governments will be expected to help. Brussels has left it up to individual countries to decide whether to introduce a windfall tax on energy companies, while urging them to keep fuel subsidies temporary and target them at those who genuinely need the support.
So, for the next few months, it may be worth adjusting the household budget and allowing a little more room for petrol and heating bills. INE will publish the final September figures on October 13.
